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Social Night: Symbol & Key Holiday Special

Symbol & Key

Thursday, 17 December 2015 from 19:00 to 21:30 (HKT)

Social Night: Symbol & Key Holiday Special

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Event Details

2016 Prediction Market : Symbol & Key Holiday Special

Symbol & Key is closing out the year with a holiday special! On our social night we'll have nuriousing refreshments and wicked brains all in attendance, but - for one night only - we'll drop our speaker routine and run a prediction market for 2016! So bring your charming selves and your fiendishly accurate predictions for the upcoming year, and we'll track and trade them on our custom-built prediction market. 

 

Prediction Markets

A prediction market is a space where people can trade on their beliefs about the future. Sports betting is one form of prediction markets, but we'll be running one tracking predictions on **anything** that could possible transpire in the coming year. All market places are bustling - but this one is particularly exciting cause you are trading on your knowledge, biases and world views . 

 

Markt App

I've developed a small application (Markt) which allows people to make predictions about 2016 and trade on them. Everyone starts with a virtual $10.000, and can invest in particular outcomes. Say 'Donald Trump will run as the Republican nominee in the 2016 presidential election'. If you think that's 60% likely, your bet will be put on the market looking for someone who thinks it's at least 40% likely that he will not be the republican nominee.

When two people are matched - i.e. they hold opposite beliefs - they enter into a contract. At the end of 2016, we'll resolve all contracts, and the person who bet on the correct outcome take 100% of the bet value . Each event is listed at $100, so to buy 84% likelihood, you'd need to invest $84. To take on that bet you'd only need to have a confidence of at least 16% in the opposite outcome and put in $16. Together this ties up $100 in that event. If the former is correct, their bet would pay out a meager 20% ROI, but if risk-taker with the worse odds wins, they'd get 525% ROI.

So.... invest wisely and we'll announce the winners at next year's Christmas Special!

 

Legal

Only virtual currency will be traded on - so we won't have to move the party to Macao just cause the cops show up. 


Location

NOT 33 Des Voeux Road Central

Garage Society
19F, 299 Queen’s Road Central,
Hong Kong, Hong Kong 

Symbol & Key

Symbol & Key is a series of talks organised to support exchanges and foster connections in Hong Kong’s Data Science community. The talks are entry-level, but at the vanguard of the discipline, so it should be accessible to aspiring data scientists and experts alike.

Venue Sponsor

Drinks Sponsor

Terms & Conditions

As part of our sponsorship arrangement, the venue sponsor has the option to add you to their mailing list. To opt out, please let us know at contact@datascience.hk.

Do you have questions about Social Night: Symbol & Key Holiday Special? Contact Symbol & Key

When & Where


Garage Society, 19F,
299 Queen's Road Central,
Sheung Wan, Hong Kong
Hong Kong
Hong Kong SAR China

Thursday, 17 December 2015 from 19:00 to 21:30 (HKT)


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Organiser

Symbol & Key

Symbol & Key is a series of talks organised to support exchanges and foster connections in Hong Kong's Data Science community. The talks are entry-level, but at the vanguard of the discipline, so it should be accessible to aspiring data scientists and experts alike. 

  Contact the Organiser

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